Are Hard Drives Getting Slower?
In preparing a presentation recently on long term trends in data storage, I was talking with Russ Kennedy and he mentioned that it was a known fact within the data storage industry that hard drive performance has been lagging. So mentioned this to Dennis Roberson and he connected me with this article at Tom’s Hardware which I found very enlightening.
It turns out that increases in hard drive capacities have been keeping pace with Moore’s law (as observed) by doubling every 24 months. But hard drive performance (reads and writes) hasn’t been keeping pace. Even though hard drive performance has been increasing, it hasn’t been increasing as fast as hard drive capacities have been increasing.
So if the amount of data that people want to read from and write to hard drives has been increasing with the rate of increase of CPU performance and hard drive capacities, then the realized performance of hard drives (on this “technology adjusted” basis) has been getting SLOWER! This is a big part of why Windows never seems to load any faster.
The article at Tom’s Hardware really brought these diverging trends together in a compelling way by measuring the speed to read a single platter against the year when the hard drive was manufactured. This chart shows that the speed to read a single platter of data has decreased by almost 10X over the past 15 years. Wow.
If these trends continue, hard drive speeds will become an increasingly limiting factor which will further limit the approach of a local hard drive as the primary data storage system. Especially for high performance environments, the solution to lagging drive performance will be architectures like Dispersed Storage that write to or read from multiple drives in parallel.



You are right buuut...
I think you are basically right and is very likely to be that way for a while. However I think that SSDs can give a completely turning point in the not too far future. SSDs are by far faster (several factors) than any magnetic media in both reading and writing and could comunicate with the computer by optical means. There is also tecnology coming to create very huge flash drives (around 1 TB of data). On the other side if things keep the way they are and it doesn't changes towards that even with the pressure they are being pushed forward, a centralized huge RAID system over high speed lan is very likely to cost less in both maintenance and deployment with probably very similar results if not better and no software is required at all wich means less possible bugs or costs in training personal both in the user side and the sysadmin side. Also there is the added benefict of redundancy for the data protection side. I think it still has a market but not the way you are envisioning it. The idea is certainly not new. What you are talking about is in fact a P2P system or a distributed filesystem. Is not that I like to discourage anybody from building stuff but maybe you find my comments usefull and might save you some time. Anyway I would find insteresting ideas or comments from others that prove me wrong in any case is in any case an interesting discussion.
Regards
Waldo